An exploration on how business can get the most out of its information technology efforts.
Styles
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Why unhandled exceptions can be good
Unhandled exceptions can make software users nervous about the quality of their software, and so software developers rightly try to avoid them. This idea can be taken too far, though. I have worked on a few applications where the developers involved tried to avoid showing the user an unhandled exception at all costs. However, that meant that there were times when something went wrong, the error was swallowed by the software, and the user was never notified. This can often result in messy data. To see why, consider this scenario:
A doctor at a hospital is entering her patient's medication information in the computer to monitor the patient's medication types and amounts to prevent over-dosage and dangerous drug interactions. This patient has just been administered three drugs. In entering the information, the application has unforeseen problems with medication #2. If the error allows the application to crash, the doctor will know that something has gone wrong and will restart the application to see what information will need to be reentered. This is annoying for the doctor, but is not life-threatening. If instead the application had swallowed the exception, and either gave the doctor a cryptic message or no message at all (which is sadly often the case), the doctor will have no idea to go into the system and double-check those entries. I can only imagine the problems that can be caused by incorrect medication information being stored for a patient.
So what does this mean for you? If you are on the implementation side, do not give into the temptation to bubble-wrap your application to the point where unhandled exceptions can never occur. Certainly handle the exceptions you can foresee. Your users will rightly expect this. But do not hide problems to the extent that no one can tell they occurred, or that the user does not understand the severity of the error. Finally, be sure that you are notified through an automatic e-mail or similar measure if such an error arises. If you are a user, do not overreact when such an error occurs to you. It is certainly frustrating to have your software application quit on you, but keep the alternative in mind. At least you know something went badly wrong.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
What business people need to know about software development
Basic Terminology:
User Interface - This is the term for the way in which the software user interacts with the application
Database - This is software that stores the data in most scenarios
Server - This is a computer, usually with a large amount of memory, that hosts the software or database
Hardware - This refers to the physical components of a computer
RAM - Think of this like short-term memory in humans: it stores information that might be needed in a few minutes, but does not hold information in the long-term
Refactoring - The process of rewriting working code to make it more readable
Data - Another name for "information", though "data" is plural
Development Process:
Writing software does not follow a predictable method or process. If it did, we could write software that could write software for us and save everyone a lot of time and money. (Most good programmers will do that when and where it is appropriate.) Because software writing is a highly creative and unpredictable process, nailing down solid estimates can be tough. If you try to force your developers to stick to their original time and cost estimates, you will likely create a contentious atmosphere which will get in everyone's way when trying to get work done. Instead be flexible to estimate changes. If it looks like a task or component is taking too long to complete, decide if it is worth completing after all. If so, keep in mind that the next estimate very well might be too large and you'll be even in the long run. If not, it is better to stop a time-consuming task early to avoid throwing good money after bad.
Early detection of problems is important
If you notice something strange in your application, especially if your data looks wrong or missing, find out what the cause is soon. Chances are that there's something wrong with your user interface and your data is fine, but if there's something in the application that's corrupting the data the sooner you can find the problem the easier it can be corrected. Lost data can be recovered from backups, but most companies only keep backups for a certain period of time.
Early detection is also important for problems like software slowness. If your software is slow, it is not likely going to speed up on its own, and will likely get worse over time. Fixing the problem early before complaints start coming in will save both you and your developer time and frustration.
Know what will change in your business requirements...and what won't
Many developers would disagree with me on this one, but I think it's important to communicate which of your business requirements will never change and which ones will certainly change over time. For example, if you have an e-commerce site that sells shirts, you might expect to add colors to your offerings, but you will not likely add sizes. The reason for this is that most developers will program non-changing requirements differently than ones that will change often. The non-changing requirements can be coded in such a way to make it easier and faster to write the first time, but harder to change going forward. The opposite is true for the changing requirements. This concept isn't critical, but it is something to keep in mind.
When problems arise, adding more bodies is probably not the solution
If a software project falls behind schedule, resist the urge to request additional resources to get it done. Why? Since, as I mentioned before, software writing is a relatively complex process, it will take time to get new resources up-to-speed on the specific requirements of your project. This not only means that these new resources will not be as effective as your current ones, but your current resources will be less effective than they were as they help bring the new resources into the project. Your best bet is probably to adjust your expected finish dates. If that is not possible, then adjusting the number of features to be added should be the next option.
Know the general limitations of your approach
I am not suggesting that you become a programming expert by any means, but you should be aware of the limitations of the software delivery method you choose. For instance, applications for a hand-held device might be difficult to move over to other brands of devices. Desktop applications are hard to update with bug fixes or changes. Web programming is limited by the fact that most of the processing must be done by the server. (Going into more detail would require another blog post on its own.) Being aware of the limitations will help you ask for features that are appropriate for your medium, and will make the conversations you have with your developers about changing features much more productive.
Keep in mind that you are a team
Finally, keep in mind that most programmers, no matter what their background, experience, or skill level, want to write good software. Their focus may be different (most software developers I know will often over-emphasize quality code creation at the expense of the software as a whole), but in the end they want the same thing. They want the software to be successful as much as you do. From what I've seen, many of the problems between business and IT could be mitigated if everyone remembered that the end goal for everyone else is the same. Build trust, and good things should follow.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Improving Business to IT Communication
Business user: I have a customer with a problem with the application.
Programmer: What seems to be the problem?
Business user: When they push this button, I want them to see a message. Except they're not seeing one.
Programmer: Let me take a look to see what's going on.
- Pause -
Programmer: Their account is missing some information, which is causing the message to stay hidden.
Business user: That's not good.
Programmer: You can fix this problem by entering information on the "My Information" page.
Business user: Thanks, I'll ask them to do that.
Is there anything wrong here? Some people might argue that there is not, since the business user is able to do what he/she needs to, and this was just a training issue. I would argue, though, that there are two problems here:
- The application is not intuitive enough
- The underlying business problem is not fixed
…
Programmer: Their account is missing some information, which is causing the message to stay hidden.
Business user: That's not good.
Programmer: You can fix this problem by entering information on the "My Information" page, but I'd bet this will continue to be a problem with other users.
Business user: I agree. I can see how that message would be dependent on the "My Information" settings. Can we make filling out that information required?
Programmer: We could do that. We could also add default responses and ask the users to change the information if necessary.
Business user: Let's do that. I don't want to force them to fill out more information than is needed.
The difference here is that both the programmer and business user see that the underlying cause of the problem - missing information on the customer's account - should be fixed for more than just this one customer. Doing so would cause fewer headaches for both business user and programmer. They came to an understanding, and found a solution that worked for both.
While this situation was vague, the problem it illustrates is not. Technology personnel need to be sensitive to the business drivers behind their requests in order to suggest more complete solutions. Next week I will get into some more specific recommendations for business managers to get more out of their software development initiatives.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Benefits of Unit Testing
Writing unit tests is an important part of writing software, but I rarely see someone take a balanced view of them. I've seen developers shun them because of the perception that they don't provide enough value for the effort necessary to make them, and I've seen developers who act as if the presence of unit tests in a solution automatically makes good software. Neither of these are true. They are worth writing, but it is important to realize their benefits and drawbacks.
How unit tests work
Unit tests are essentially bits of code written and run for the sole purpose of testing components of production software. The idea is that it is no longer necessary to run the entire application to test the functionality of these components. For example, assume that we're writing software that takes applications for a program, and if the application is received less than 30 days before the start of the program, then an extra $100 is applied to the program fee. Our unit tests (in pseudocode) might look like this:
Function AppliesBeforeDeadline DateTime today = "8/15/2010" DateTime startDate = "10/1/2010" Assert.IsFalse(CheckLateFeeNeeded(today, startDate)) End Function Function AppliesAfterDeadline DateTime today = "8/15/2010" DateTime startDate = "9/1/2010" Assert.IsTrue(CheckLateFeeNeeded(today, startDate)) End Function Function AppliesOnDeadline DateTime today = "8/1/2010" DateTime startDate = "8/30/2010" Assert.IsTrue(CheckLateFeeNeeded(today, startDate)) End Function Function AppliesRightBeforeDeadline DateTime today = "8/1/2010" DateTime startDate = "8/31/2010" Assert.IsFalse(CheckLateFeeNeeded(today, startDate)) End Function
There are four tests here. The first, "AppliesBeforeDeadline", tests to make sure that when we apply prior to 30 days before the deadline, the fee is not applied. "AppliesAfterDeadline" tests for the opposite scenario in which we are applying after the 30 days prior to the deadline. There are also two tests that check for boundary conditions; meaning the the last two tests test scenarios close to where the functionality should change.
The real benefit here is that now that we've tested these scenarios, we don't have to do nearly as much testing with the application is running. We can test these normal circumstances by running a simple function, which is less time-consuming compared to starting the entire application. Perhaps the best benefit is that we can use these tests as regression tests at a later date. If someone wanted to change the way "CheckLateFeeNeeded" works at some point, it would be nice to know that he/she didn't break anything in the process of making those changes.
The major drawback I see to unit tests is that developers will often assume that because a particular bit of code has unit tests written against it, it doesn't need to be tested in the application as a whole. To see why this assumption is dangerous, let's take a closer look at our unit tests. In this scenario, we didn't even test for all of the types of inputs we could reasonably expect, much less test for exceptional conditions. Some further tests might need are:
- What happens when one of the dates is in February, a month with only 28 days?
- If one of the dates is in UTC, is the function able to correctly calculate the difference in days?
- Will the function still work if the days are 375 days apart (does the function incorporate years into its calculation)?
- Will the function still work if one date is in December and the other is in January?
Even if we write tests and all these pass, we also must consider scenarios where one of the dates is missing or null and/or the start date is after the application date. Just because we have unit tests doesn't mean the function works in all scenarios.
Unit tests also can't guarantee that the function is always called correctly. A developer could easily switch the two dates and enter the start date where the application date goes and vice versa. If the developer (or project manager, supervisor, or stakeholder) assumes that because a unit test exists the application must be functioning well he/she will be in for some unpleasant surprises when the user starts applying for programs.
The bottom line is that unit tests can be very helpful if used properly. Regardless of whether they are used properly, they can give you a false sense of security that your application has fewer bugs than it does. It is important to realize their benefits and limitations before deciding how much to use them in your project.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Multitasking
- Focus your attention on a single task at a time. If another issue emerges that is more important, that should get 100% of your attention. If it is not more important, then it can wait.
- Multitasking is about the attention to a task and does not refer to the number of thoughts you must keep in your head at any given time
Avoiding multitasking also doesn't mean that you can't put aside a particular task if you're stuck. It means focusing 100% of your attention on whatever task you are trying to accomplish at any given moment. If you are not making any headway, going to another task temporarily is not multitasking in my view; it's serial single-tasking.
Finally, the author of the rebuttal blog seemed to think that doing complex tasks qualifies as multitasking. As a programmer, when I get a request for a feature change to software that I'm building, I need to consider many different ideas:
- The most effective way to implement the solution
- The needs of power users
- The needs of the first-time user
- Costs for my client
- Unintended consequences that might arise because of my fixes
So if multitasking makes one work less effectively and accomplishes nothing worth noting, then why do it on a regular basis?
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Tips for mentoring others
http://blogs.techrepublic.com.com/five-tips/?p=212
These tips are rather incomplete, though. I'd like to expand on their tips:
- The issue with mentoring seems not to be lack of will, but lack of time. More on this in a bit.
- Make sure your road map covers more than just the first few hours. It is all well and good to show the new employee the location of the documentation, but have a plan that covers at least the first six months. This plan should include ways to make the employee more independent as time goes on.
- Be tolerant of mistakes, but try to prevent common or serious ones. Confidence building is key.
- Try to assign projects at first that have a training purpose as well as a practical purpose for the company. This should be a mixture of easy projects to give the employee confidence and stretch projects to keep him or her engaged.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Programming assumptions
http://stackoverflow.com/questions/888224/what-is-your-longest-held-programming-assumption-that-turned-out-to-be-incorrect
which got me wondering, what assumptions have I made that turned out to be incorrect? The one that came to mind for me was the idea that going to the database is slower than pulling in all the data you need at once and querying the stored data when necessary. It really depends on your situation. When you don't have to deal with remoting or firewalls, it is very often faster to query the database than to use a stored list.
More importantly, though, this question should make everyone ask themselves: what assumptions do I make today that are based on incomplete, out-dated, or inaccurate information? A post like this one is good in that it helps everyone to see what assumptions had been proved false and allows all the posters and readers to learn from others' mistakes. However, the goal should be to question our current assumptions, not just take pride in previous lessons learned. Looking back is certainly a valuable exercise, but looking for new lessons to be learned is more important.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
What band instrument repair taught me about I.T.
Many different approaches can accomplish a task
In order to seat a pad in a woodwind instrument, one can take many different approaches. You could "float" a pad in place with hot glue or liquid shellac, glue the pad in place and clamp the pad down so it will take the necessary shape (called impressions), use cork pads and sand the cork to the necessary shape, use flexible pads and manually shape the pads to the tone hole, and so forth. Each method has its strengths and weaknesses. Many players (especially saxophonists) prefer the feel of pads glued in with shellac, but it gets brittle in cold weather. Padding with no impressions results in a longer-lasting repair, but takes longer to prepare the instrument beforehand. The same concept holds true in I.T. No single programming language/operating system/software package can do everything you need every time perfectly. PHP might be good for getting a web site up quickly, but Java or .NET might be more appropriate for a large-scale web site. It is important to know and explore the alternatives to come up with the best solution.
To a hammer, everything looks like a nail
Continuing the previous thought, some people will stick to a particular methodology because it is the "best" for whatever reason. Just like some repair professionals will claim that stick shellac is a superior choice of glue over other hot melt glues, some I.T. professionals will stick by a database, operating system, programming language, etc., for similar reasons. While choosing a methodology for its convenience can usually get the job done, the best products I've seen are the result of knowing the alternatives and choosing the best methodology based on its merits, not based on convenience. The idea that one becomes an "expert" in one area by refusing to learn other areas usually leads to more limitations than expertise.
Perfection is impossible
If I were to try to get a flute to respond as quickly as possible, I would make the pads and tone holes as flat as possible (usually within .0005 inches), use the thinnest possible padding between metal contact points, remove all the play in all of the mechanisms, and so on. However, doing so results in a flute whose mechanisms are noisy and more susceptible to adjustment problems. Finding the right balance between durability, quietness, and response is difficult and should depend on the individual needs of the customer. The same holds true in software development. An application built for performance is often harder to change, where an application built for ease-of-use might take longer to load. Sure, there are cases when changing some code can result in an application that's easier to maintain and faster to load, but at some point your goals in writing software become conflicting.
Talent is less important than most people think
Finally, I've met countless people in the music industry who became good at what they do not through talent, but through hard work. Success comes to people who work hard, always strive to do better, and to recognize potential areas for improvement in what otherwise seems like a success. People who do those things almost always succeed in the end, no matter how they might define "success".
Saturday, June 26, 2010
The 60 hour work week
http://archives.igda.org/articles/erobinson_crunch.php
Basically, it states that the output you get from an employee who works 60 hours a week is roughly the same as one who works 40 hours a week.
So by pushing employees to work longer hours, a company is not only likely driving away its best employees, but it's also not getting any more work out of the employees who stay. I have to think this is more pronounced for I.T. workers. Since most of the good I.T. workers I've encountered get energy for their job by working on fun projects on the side, they would likely approach burnout quickly as a result of working too much. What makes matters worse, burned out workers produce less, which in turn increases the pressure put on them, which increases the feeling of burnout, which in turn lowers productivity.... You get the idea. I can't see any advantages to pushing employees this hard, so it's a wonder so many firms out there do it.
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Using outsourcing effectively
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Competing Through I.T.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Determining if a project is worth the money
This year (2010): $0
2011: $20,000
2012: $50,000
2013: $100,000
2014: $80,000
2015: $30,000
2016: $0
Should I take the project? On the surface, the project seems to bring in $80,000 profit for the company. But I should take into account the fact that most of the profits come in years 2013 and 2014. To see why, imagine that the bank on the corner is offering an incentive to start an account. Just bring in $1000 and you get $100 cash on the spot. Would you take that deal? Now imagine that bringing in $1000 now will get you $100 a year from now. That doesn't look so good. Would you take the deal if you had to wait 20 years for the $100? Probably not. So how should I go about determining whether the delay is worth it?
It's easiest if I start by figuring out what rate of return I would like from this investment. (You'll see why in a moment.) If I work for a publicly traded company, I could use the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) as a starting point. The WACC basically tries to answer the question: if my company wanted to raise money for a project today, what interest rate would I expect to pay? I won't go into the details about how to calculate it, but it tries to predict what people would pay for new stocks and bonds issued by the company. (While I recommend having someone calculate the value for your company if you were to use it for something important, http://www.wikiwealth.com/ seems to have numbers that are close.)
Now, I said that the WACC should be a starting point. The reason is that it doesn't take into account any specifics of the project. If this particular project involves a lot of risk (maybe the sales estimates are uncertain or the estimates are based on the economy continuing to grow) then I might want to adjust the rate higher. (Riskier projects, stocks, bonds, and most other investments require a greater return if more risk is involved.) Finally, keep in mind that since the WACC is the rate a company would pay investors for capital, it is essentially the break-even point. Accepting a project that has returns that match the WACC would be like taking a bank loan at 6% to buy an investment that returns 6%. In the end that investment has no net gain.
I think that my project isn't particularly risky so I'll just use my company's WACC. For this example, I'll use both the WACC for Microsoft (9%) and CitiGroup (14%), as determined by www.wikiwealth.com. I could then find the present value of my profits using Excel. The present value is essentially a way of telling us the value of a series of cash flows for a given interest rate. For example, if I wanted to determine how much the project is worth for Microsoft, I would enter:
=NPV(0.09, 20000, 50000, 100000, 80000, 30000)
Where the first term is the interest rate, and all the subsequent terms are the expected profits from each future year. When I enter this, Excel returns a present value of $213,822.93. Since this is more than the $200,000 investment for the project, I should accept the project. What about CitiGroup? Here is my present value calculation in Excel:
=NPV(0.14, 20000, 50000, 100000, 80000, 30000)
Which returns $186,461.87. It looks like I would not take the project if I worked for CitiGroup.
I hope that gives you a little bit of insight into some of the finances behind decision making. As you can see, the process is somewhat subjective (such as determining the interest rate and estimating the profits), but it does give you a relatively easy way of comparing the value of two different projects.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Hiring good programmers - Part 2
I would start by defining the tasks the position requires as honestly, realistically, and specifically as possible. This isn't as easy as it sounds. For example, many openings that I've seen for programmers require someone who can complete code "on time, within budget, and bug-free". If a company is having trouble finding programmers who meet these requirements, what is the problem? Yes, skill deficiencies in the programmers themselves can cause any or all of these issues. But so can poor requirements, poorly controlled scope creep, poor communication, etc. What exactly is the need?
A better approach might be identifying which aspects of the finished product are most important. A programmer trying to be one of the first to create a game for a new mobile system might be more focused on time and budget than bugs. To contrast, programming for medical devices would require much more focus on creating bug-free software. Along with this, be aware of any road blocks within your company preventing programmers from getting work done. Do the programmers frequently get poor requirements? While improving the requirement gathering and documenting process, I would focus on getting programmers with enough of a business sense to be able to extrapolate missing information from the requirements. Are projects frequently under time pressure? Then finding programmers who can get work done quickly should be a priority.
Once the tasks have been defined, I would then break each of the tasks down into Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities (KSA). For the sake of example, I'll start breaking down a few of the tasks and KSAs needed for a completely hypothetical mid-level ASP.NET developer position. This position might be for a mid-sized company looking to add onto a web application designed to track inventory within a supply chain looking to add a developer to a team that can handle simpler tasks to free up some senior developers to work on other projects.
Tasks:
- Creates reusable, maintainable, reliable components in C#
- Tracks down bugs with little assistance from more experienced developers
- Integrates third-party components into web applications
- Working knowledge of Object-Oriented Programming concepts
- Experience creating effective unit tests
- Makes intelligent decisions as to when a component should be broken down into sub-components
- Can read and understand code in C#
- Can read and understand documentation
- Can refactor poorly written code into more usable/readable components
- Can write unit tests to reduce the amount of time testing through the user interface
- Can read and understand third-party documentation
- Can integrate third-party code into a larger application as seamlessly as possible
- Can anticipate problems with third-party components and comes up with reasonable work-around solutions
- If you are asked to fix a method that has a return type of an object and returns a due date if the user is valid and 'false' if not, how would you go about doing so?
- If you have some functionality in one of your classes that is needed by another, what is the best way to move that functionality to the new class?
- If you are using a third-party library to send information from several different ASP.NET pages to a third-party store, where do you put the logic?
It is also important to evaluate employees by watching them do work that is representative of the job they would be hired for. I might run into someone who can talk about different technologies or approaches fairly well, but when they get to doing the job, they fall short. I would take a similar approach to designing the test as I would designing questions; I would identify important KSAs and create tasks that would require them. Taking this one step further, I also like to break down my tasks into three categories: tasks that every person ought to be able to do, tasks that require skills that are "nice to have", and tasks that I don't expect the candidate to complete. This way I can get a deeper sense of the understanding a candidate has for particular skills. A candidate who can complete some of the tasks in the last category will have an advantage over those who don't.
Finally, you may be wondering about how to determine cultural fit. Unfortunately, cultural fit is tough to pin down and therefore it is difficult to create good questions to get at it. To make it even tougher, many of the questions that could be asked to ascertain cultural fit open the door to discrimination lawsuits. I don't have any good ideas here. If anyone has any ideas, please feel free to leave a comment. I'm certainly open to ideas.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Hiring good programmers - Part 1
What about the resume? Many companies will pre-rank candidates (either explicitly or implicitly) based on the quality of the resume and the information presented on it. There are a few problems with this. First, I don't have a reliable source handy, but I recall hearing that 50% of people lie on their resume. 50%! Couple with the proliferation of sites (such as fakeresume.com) that are intended to give advice to people who want to get away with lying on a resume, and it's tough to know which resumes to trust. Second, many of your potential employees will have hired a professional resume writer in order to get your attention. Great resume? Is it because they are a detailed worker or just hired a great resume writer?
What about a degree? Most of the jobs posted on the major job sites for programmers ask for some sort of technical bachelor's degree. This certainly should be a consideration for an entry-level candidate. However, in observing a number of people in a number of different industries, I've come to the conclusion that the benefits of the quality or type (or even presence) of a degree decreases severely after about 1-3 years of experience. For experienced candidates, the ability to learn new concepts and apply those concepts in new situations becomes a much more important asset than the quality or source of their original education. Putting it in another way, does the candidate have 10 years of experience, or 1 year of experience repeated 10 times? In fact, I might be more inclined to hire the person with the poor quality of education who somehow managed to become a good programmer, since they have the proven ability to learn and apply concepts in less than ideal circumstances. (Or maybe I just think that because I'm a self-taught programmer.)
What about the interview? A lot of good information can be gotten from an interview, but a lot of misleading information can be gotten here, too. I'll speak more about interviews in Part 2, when I actually start talking about methods that can help you find good candidates rather than merely eliminating bad ones, but I will mention here that you should always be aware of the implications of what you are asking even if the legality of questions weren't an issue. As an extreme example, I read an article on BNET that quoted a hiring manager saying (and I'm paraphrasing) that they hired someone based on the answer to this question: "If you would be a character from 'The Wizard of Oz', which would you be and why?" What can you learn from the answer, assuming you get one?
- The interviewee thinks well on his or her feet and handles the unexpected well
- The interviewee has an active fantasy life and empathizes with characters easily
- The interviewee is a huge 'Wizard of Oz' fan
- The interviewee trusts you that you know what you are doing, even though you are asking a question that seemingly gives you no insight into his/her ability to do your job or him/her insight into their fit into your culture, making him/her a likely "yes person"
- The interviewee does not have the ability to sense when something is or is not a waste of time and would be a poor choice for leadership positions
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Should programmers be middle managers?
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Using simulation software for better project estimation
(In interests of full disclosure, I'm writing this article with Palisade's @RISK software in mind, since that's the software I used in my Quantitative Analysis course. I'm reasonably certain that there are similar software packages out there.)
How would these simulators work for estimating an I.T. project? First, you should break down your effort into smaller, manageable components. For the sake of example, let's say that you need to add a new feature to an existing web site. You know that there will be 5 new pages, 7 new tables, and some business logic. However, the business logic is extremely difficult and one of the pages will require quite a bit of extra work, perhaps using an unfamiliar technology. You break it down, and your estimate might look like this:
- UI for 4 simple pages: 2 hours each (+/- 1 hour)
- 7 database tables: 1 hour each (30 minutes minimum, 2 hours maximum)
- Complex UI for one page: 8 hours (could be 6, but it could explode to 16)
- Business logic: 16 hours (but for whatever reason, you really don't know)
This was a relatively simple example for demonstration purposes. I can't speak for all risk analysis software, but @RISK makes it relatively easy for a programmer to add some pretty complex logic into your scenario. You could pretty easily plan for uncertainties due to uncertain staffing, add provisions for scope creep, or add profits (if you're a consulting firm) to you model. The sky is the limit.
While the software can be useful, it does not protect you from errors from false assumptions. In the example above, I didn't add provisions for getting the data from the database into the business logic layer, nor did I add a provision for testing. If these components weren't already built into the estimate, your estimate is going to be low. Therefore, approach the information you get back from the system cautiously.
If you're interested in reading more about the subject, I would suggest the textbook I learned from, which is Data Analysis and Decision Making by Albright, Winston, and Zappe. The examples they give are not I.T. specific, but it shouldn't be hard to apply those concepts to your estimation process. If nothing else, you can continue to watch this blog since I plan on continuing to post about the subject from time to time.